So far, generous free trials have been a common strategy for audiobook services to attract new subscribers. Looking at Q2, Mediavision can conclude that churn intentions remains high – and significantly higher than for other streaming media services. 20% of audiobook subscriptions on the Swedish market were non-pay and mostly free-trials. One of the crucial questions for this industry is how to increase conversion rates and build loyalty. There is a significant share of those currently holding a free subscription that intend to cancel their subscription.

This past weekend (24-27 September) the annual Swedish bookfair was held, first time ever completely digital. Preliminary figures show that the event amassed approx. 373 000 views. In Denmark, the industry meeting “Bog forum” was cancelled all together (which caused Danish publisher People’s Press and book service Mofibo, both owned by Storytel, to arrange a digital festival announced for November).

Mediavision’s Audio Analysis concludes that a significant 20% share of the current audiobook subscriptions are currently not paid for (e.g. free trials). In comparison, among SVOD and music streaming services, the corresponding share amounts to 10%. The high share of non-paid subscriptions is a consequence of the audiobook industry currently focusing on building penetration, mostly through free trials. Hence, the fragmented market has resulted in a strong position for new consumers, who can enjoy a wide supply at low (or basically no) cost.

For the actors, the purpose is to build a large customer base for the future. And there is another worrying KPI: The high churn intention among actual, and paying, customers. 30% of today’s subscribers claim they intend to churn within 12 months. Focusing on those holding a non-paid subscription, 45% claim they intend to stay shorter than 12 months. So why is this? Well, the most frequently stated reason for churn is pricing – even among those that pay nothing. Likely, it would be tough to raise prices…

The bird’s eye view is that the current market situation comes out of a combination of fierce competition and difficulties in differentiating the services. Competition will not decrease anytime soon, with Amazon to enter this fall and other services (Apple, Spotify) pushing their share of “listening” through e g podcasts. Eventually, mergers are to be expected.