The Annus Horribilis 2020 – certainly not only for the media industry – is soon coming to an end. We thought this might be a good time to list some of the media events with most impact. To start, we turn to the West and the US streaming landscape. 

Looking back at 2020, we dare pinpoint Disney+ as one of the major market disruptors. It launched in November 2019 and the timing could probably not have been better; massive lockdowns paired with a huge demand for “home entertainment” made Disney+ the winner this year. As of October 3rd, the service had amassed a subscriber base of close to 74 million globally – virtually crushing all initial estimates of 60-90 million subscribers by 2024. The outcome here in the Nordics has been just as successful, with a +10% average household penetration just weeks after the launch in September.

But other players have also presented solid growth in the US this year. Hulu, owned by Disney, saw a +27% growth in SVOD subscribers in Q3 YOY. Netflix reported a subscriber growth of 23% in Q3 (YOY), amounting to a total of 195 million paying subs of which 73 million in the US (37%). However, the service fell short of its Q3 target. In the Nordics, Mediavision has noted a somewhat slower growth than previously during 2020.

On May 27th, AT&T-owned HBO Max launched in the US – with a lineup of many of its’ major rights earlier withdrawn from various competitors (e g “Friends” from Netflix). This contributed to an extensive library already from Day 1. However, the achievements so far have not been all bright. In its Q3 earnings report, AT&T stated that in total, 28.7 million customers were eligible to stream HBO Max by the end of the quarter. But only 8.6 million customers had activated their subscriptions – possibly a cause for concern for the telco (subscribers to HBO can access HBO Max as part of their package).

Next in line, Comcast, launched its new streamer Peacock on July 15th. So far (Q3), the service has attracted nearly 22 million subscribers – “exceeding every internal engagement metric without the benefit of the Olympics or content like The Office (coming in January 2021)” according to Comcast. Domestic streaming for Comcast (CBS All Access and Showtime) grew 72% YOY in Q3.

And there is still some time for new initiatives: On December 2nd, Discovery is expected to reveal further details of its global streaming service and the strategy behind it, including a direct-to-consumer product in the US and “enhancements” of the SVOD services in international markets.

But there are market failures as well. Maybe the most well-known is Quibi. After attracting only 450 000 subscribers, the service will be shut down in December.

The US is expected to see continued online video growth despite clear signs of market maturity. Analysts have forecasted that SVOD subscriptions will reach 317 million by 2025, up from 203 million at the end of 2019 (i.e +8% CAGR). Hence, the streaming market is bursting with opportunity – but also in a state of heavy competition – the consumer is the winner so far.